A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
